My Antonio Gates Blog

Well Week 1 of the NFL season is almost upon us and like the college football opener last weekend, this event is like Christmas in September for our stable of professional handicappers. After the incredible opening performance we had with our college football week 1 picks, we now turn our attention to the opening week of the NFL season. There are 15 games at our disposal. 15 games to analyze and handicap so that we can pass along the correct information to our many subscribers who have trusted out judgment for over 10 years. Now for us professional cappers, week 1 of both college and the NFL season are the hardest weeks we have to deal with. There are many uncertainties at work here and trying to figure out who is decent and who is terrible is not so easy when no games have been played. The oddsmakers also have a difficult time releasing adequate lines and we have seen over the years that Vegas either loses a ton of money in week 1 due to poor lines, or wins a ton of money, due to great lines.

Now as far as the NFL is concerned, it is only mildly easier to handicap week 1 games as compared to college football. For one, there are four NFL preseason game that serve as a decent barometer to tell how good a team can be. Also, you have more steadiness in NFL rosters due to the fact you don't constantly have kids graduating and jobs constantly being taken over. So with that as a backdrop, we examined Week 1's lines and started doing hardcore analyzing once the fourth preseason games were in the books. Our picks are all pretty much finished and they are being prepared to be sent out shortly but I must say that there are some very interesting lines out there.

For example you have the worst team in the NFL by far last season, the Oakland Raiders being favored at home against the Detroit Lions. Also, you have another poor team, the Houston Texans being favored by 3 points at home against a veteran Kansas City Chiefs team. Now surely the presence of QB Matt Schaub for the Texans is a major reason for the role as the favorite here but this is a big example of how an off-season transaction can have a major impact on a betting line for the first week of the season. We haven't seen any games yet and so no one really knows if this status is warranted for the Texans of if they are still a poor club. Hence the challenge everyone in this line of work has. However, we have used our dozens of winning formula, game trends, and stats to weed out who we like and we have used these winning formulas to accumulate a nearly 60 percent winning mark in 10 years of business. Our college football picks went 26-12 ATS in Week 1 and a good deal of the picks were there for everyone to see on our site. As far as Week 1 of the NFL season, we feel like we made very solid choices and here are a few freebies for you to enjoy.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5) VS. Baltimore Ravens: In a division slugfest, the Cincinnati Bengals look to put a turbulent off-season behind them as they take on the Baltimore Ravens at home. Just like St. Louis-Carolina, this figures to be a battle of strong offense vs. strong defense. For Cincy, QB Carson Palmer is already one of the top three passers in the league and there is no reason to believe that he won't pass for 4,000 yards and possibly as many as 35 TD's. Having a pair of Pro Bowl receivers in Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh around will further solidify his place among the NFL's elite. It will be interesting to see how Cincy comes out offensively in this one as Baltimore's defense is strong in all aspects. RB Rudi Johnson will find the running room very tight as DT Haloti Ngata's 350 pound frame will clog the middle and IF he can make it through, MLB Ray Lewis will be waiting to smash him in the mouth. The Bengals will most likely keep their attack in the air as Houshmandzadeh will have the easier assignment with Samari Rolle covering as opposed to Chad Johnson having to deal with Chris McAllister.

As far as the Ravens are concerned, expect to see a heavy dose of new RB Willis McGahee as the Bengal run defense struggled at times last year. Steve McNair is back for another go round and he is still crafty enough to get the ball downfield to wideouts Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. Offense however is not this team's strong suit and scoring in the 20's is about the best that this unit can do. So on the surface, expecting the Ravens to outscore Baltimore will take a huge defensive effort which we don't anticipate to the degree that they can win this game outright. The Bengals should come out flying in front of the home crowd and will be extra pumped up going against a key division rival. Although the Raven D can do enough to keep them in the game, the Bengals have way too much firepower to be held in check for long. The Bengals have also covered four of their last five against the Ravens and the favorite in the last seven games in the series is now 6-1 ATS. THE PICK: Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6) Chicago Bears: Best match up this upcoming Sunday as this is a potential Super Bowl preview between two very good teams. The Bears rode a record setting defense all the way to the Super Bowl last season and have the same unit pretty much completely intact going into 2007. The Chargers on the other hand are looking to do big things and erase the sting of losing in their first playoff game, which ultimately cost coach Marty Schoettenheimer his job. Marty has now been replaced by Redskins and Raiders retread Norv Turner and Turner should have an immediate impact on the San Diego offense. Led by All-World RB LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers have a great nucleus in QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates. The offensive line is arguably the best in the league and the receiving corp. is getting better. Expect Norv to open up the offense and to completely due away with the conservative game-planning that held this team back in 2006. Of course it would impossibly to say LT could top his ridiculous performance last season but he is still in his prime and certainly has a great chance of having another monster season.

Look for the Chargers to open up their attack by running Tomlinson up the middle and having Rivers throw him passes in the flat which he can turn up field into big gains. The Chicago defense is much too quick to run on the outside and so this plan of attack will be the best way for San Diego to get production out of Tomlinson. As far as Rivers is concerned, look for his focus to be mainly on his star TE as the ferocious Chicago pass rush will be out for blood. Rivers won't have all day to throw so Gates will be instructed to run his 15 yard slants that he is so famous for. Of course Bears MLB Brian Urlacher has the athleticism to stay with Gates and so this battle could go either way. The Chargers' receiving corp. is led by the emerging Vincent Jackson and supported by Eric Parker. San Diego is at a major disadvantage against the Chicago CB duo of Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher and so don't expect much of a downfield passing attack.

The Chicago offense has potential themselves but the big question centers of course on inconsistent QB Rex Grossman. There are times that Grossman looks like the next Joe Namath and others when he looks like the next Ryan Leaf. His inability to put back-to-back solid outings together is maddening but it's hoped that off-season tutoring will allow Rex to fulfill his potential and become a solid every-week performer. A big issue for Grossman in this game is the great pass rush that the Chargers will bring with OLB Shawne Merriman and DE Luis Castillo. San Diego's defensive line and LB's are so strong that the Bears will have a very difficult time running the football with RB Cedric Benson. Benson has the starting job all to himself but this is a very tough opponent to face in Week 1. Don't expect much out of the Chicago running game and so the focus will be on Grossman getting the ball out quickly to his TE's Desmond Clark and rookie Greg Olsen. WR Mushin Muhammud will also be targeted often as the veteran is still a great route runner who can help move the chains. All in all, it will be very difficult for the Bears to get much going offensively unless the offensive line can hold off the rush.

We believe this game will be a very low scoring affair that ultimately the Chargers will win due to their superior offense. Will they do enough to overcome the six-point spread? We think not as we expect a 21-17 win. Also looking at the game trends, the Bears have covered four straight games vs. the Chargers and have gone an incredible 17-2-1 ATS record against the AFC West in their last 20 meetings. Finally, the Bears are 7-3 ATS as an underdog in season openers the last 27 years. THE PICK: Chicago Bears (+6)

Good Luck!

Cofounder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com/ in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.

Ever since Jeremy Shockey was drafted and Antonio Gates came from nowhere and started doing his Superman impressions, few positions on the football field have been more (over) hyped and heralded than the tight end.

Every guy who has some size, some speed and some hands is looked at as a prospect. Offenses are being built around tight ends like never before. Gates set the single season record for touchdowns for a tight end in 2004 with 13, and Tony Gonzalez set another record with 102 receptions that year. With Gates and Gonzalez making the transition from power forward to tight end, the Final Four tournament has turned into an NFL recruiting event. Vernon Davis was drafted sixth overall this spring. Tight ends were often lucky to get picked by the sixth round before this renaissance. But why is the position getting all this attention?

There are a couple of big reasons why the position is so much more important these days, and they have to do with defenses. Tony Dungy is one of several coaches who is loyal to a cover 2 defensive scheme. If you're not up on NFL playbooks, the cover 2 is essentially a zone defense where only the D-line pass rushes and the rest of the players are responsible for covering their own piece of the field. Like any zone defense, cover 2 creates exploitable spots in the area where two zones meet. The middle linebacker can often be taken advantage of by a seam route that finds him out of place, and the tight end is a natural target of that route.

The bigger reason for the popularity of the position, however, is the 3-4 defense. That defense, with three linemen and four linebackers, is becoming more popular. One way to limit the effectiveness of that defense, and to stop it from running fancy plays, is to put two tight ends on the field (instead of a tight end and two running backs). The linebackers can find it more challenging to find matchups and safeties can be challenged as well. The two tight ends can create more gaps in the running game, too, since there are more blockers on the line.

Because the 3-4 is spreading, teams are looking to have twice as many starting tight ends on their rosters. Last year 11 teams used two tight ends for at least 45 percent of their plays, and that number is sure to grow this season. Hence, the huge demand for good tight ends. Teams aren't just looking for the big blocking bodies anymore, either. Today's tight ends are essentially oversized wide receivers with ridiculous speed and good hands. Good offense is all about creating and exploiting mismatches, and the tight end can create more mismatches than almost anyone on the field. It used to be that the tight end was just a last resort if every other receiver was covered, but now the tight end is a primary target for many teams.

Understanding the tight end can have a big impact on choosing the teams that you will bet on. Gates is the best there is by a wide margin, and Gonzalez, Shockey and Todd Heap are the players everyone knows about. By keeping your eye on some other tight ends that are poised for big years and picking your spots, however, you can have a real edge when their team is playing against a 3-4 or a rigid cover 2. Tight ends have been the difference in a lot of games over the last couple of seasons, and that will certainly be the case this year. Here are five guys we hear less about who could be gamebreakers this season:

Kellen Winslow, Jr., Cleveland - Winslow has had a terrible start to his career, but he is healthy and ready. Young QB Charlie Frye will have a better year this year if he can rely on having a TE to dump to when he gets in trouble. Frye, Winslow and Braylon Edwards have been working hard to build a rapport, and it should pay off this year. Winslow has all the tools in the world, so if he can get his attitude in line, and stay off motorcycles, he could provide the Browns a much needed edge.

Jeb Putzier, Houston - A player has a huge advantage when he is his coach's guy. New coach Gary Kubiak brought Putzier with him from Denver, so you know he'll get lots of attention. David Carr has never really had a decent option at tight end. Putzier catches the ball for long yardage when it is thrown to him. He will figure more prominently in the offense in Houston than he did in Denver, and that should benefit both him and Carr.

Eric Johnson, San Francisco - Sure, Vernon Davis is getting all the attention in San Fran, but rookie tight ends often take a while to figure things out, and Johnson is the real deal. He missed last year with an injury, but he caught 82 passes for 825 yards the year before. Alex Smith needs all the help he can get, and his wide receiver corps sure isn't going to provide it, so Johnson could be a regular target, especially early in the season.

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville - I know I just said rookie tight ends often struggle, but Lewis has looked great in camp. Vernon Davis got all the attention at the draft, but this UCLA grad was honored as the top tight end in college last season. The Jags have never really focused on a tight end, but then they have had Kyle Brady forever, so it's a bit of a chicken and egg scenario. A high ankle sprain has slowed Lewis down for the last two weeks, but he figures to be a key target for Byron Leftwich when he hits the field.

Zachary Hilton, New Orleans - Hilton started to make an impact in the last half of last season, ending up with 35 catches and almost 400 yards. He's a 6'8" giant who makes an easy target. The biggest boost Hilton (or perhaps any player in the league) got in the offseason is the addition of Drew Brees. Brees obviously got into the habit of finding Gates, so Hilton should see a lot more leather this season.

Check Doc's Sports site for daily sports betting articles, Cleveland Browns Schedule, Jacksonville Jaguars Schedule, and San Francisco 49ers Schedule and all your sports handicapping needs.

We all know the names of Gonzalez, Witten and Gates, and you can make an argument to put Clark in this elite group also. But these 4 will require a 3rd or 4th round pick. How can you draft a solid, consistent producer at Tight End and wait until you get good value for him? In our Fantasy Football Sleepers series, we tackle tight ends next.

Sleeper #1

Chase Coffman caught 90 balls for almost 1,000 yards last year as a senior for Missouri. Those are huge numbers for any TE in college football, and going to Cincinnati means he can contribute immediately for a team without any solid offensive TE. Carson Palmer is healthy after being injured last season, and the Bengals have the 5th easiest schedule for Tight Ends. Their offensive line is not the greatest, and their backfield is not what you would call stellar, so look for a lot of dump-offs and a few red zone targets. I am looking for 53 catches, 590 yards and 5 scores. This is a guy you can draft extremely late, possibly the last round, and get mid-round value out of.

Sleeper #2

With a healthy Darren McFadden back at RB, and their inability to throw the ball down the field, Oakland will be able to feed Zach Miller the ball in Red Zone situations where the line will be stacked to stop the run. Miller had only one TD last year, but has averaged 600 yards and 50 catches the past 2 seasons. His Red Zone production should improve to 5 or 6 TDs this year, as Oakland is facing the easiest schedule in the league for Tight Ends. You know they will be trailing a lot this year, and their defensive backfield will give them several short field situations, with CB Nnamdi Asomugha and others picking the ball on D. For these two reasons, I think the short to middle pass will be a staple this year for them, and an area for Miller to shine.

If you are looking for 900 yards and 8 TDs from your TE, you have got to take one of the elite 3 or 4 guys in round 3 or 4. And if you feel comfortable drafting a less than 100% Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates, be my guest. But I just really hate spending that kind of money on a TE when you can lose only 2 fantasy points a game by taking someone in the 8th round or later. You more than make up for the difference with the RB, WR or QB differential by using that 3rd round pick at one of these 3 skill positions instead.

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NY GIANTS (-4) VS. Washington Redskins: The Giants kick off the 2008 NFL season and the defense of their Super Bowl title on Thursday night against a Redskins team that begins the Jim Zorn era. Zorn has installed a pass-happy scheme for Washington and QB Jason Campbell has the accuracy and strong arm to make it work. Of course this is also the third different offense he has had to learn in the last three years so expect some struggles early on as he tries to adapt. DE Jason Taylor comes over from Miami to shore up the line but he currently is listed as questionable with a knee sprain. For the Giants, the loss of DE Osi Umenyiora to season-ending ACL surgery and retirement of Michael Strahan will certainly take some bite out of the pass rush but Justin Tuck is on the verge of becoming a star and Mathias Kiwanuka has great pass rush ability so things won't fall apart in that aspect. The offense has the chance to be very good with a great corp. of RB's and solid depth at the WR position led by Plaxico Burress who looks to put his ankle issues behind him in his quest for a new pact. As far as the game goes, the Giants do qualify in a solid 28-15 ATS angle against a division foe at home but the -4 is a tad high for our liking. Both teams will be jazzed up a nationally televised kickoff so expect the best from both squads. Washington also has some angles that favor them here so it's best to stay clear of this game altogether. If the line drops to -3 then jump on the Giants with confidence but at -4 it's in that danger zone of a field goal game. One major commandment of football betting is to be extra careful with Week 1 games due to the lack of knowledge of the teams and that certainly is the case with this game. THE PICK: PASS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5) VS. St. Louis Rams:*******BEST BET*****

BUFFALO BILLS (-1) VS. Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks come into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. The pass-happy 'Hawks have major issues in the receiving department as Deion Branch wont be available until possibly midseason and the leading pass catcher looks to be the very mediocre Nate Burleson who flopped in that role with Minnesota. The infusion at the RB position with Julius Jones and TJ Duckett will surely help and the defense looks great led by LB Lofa Tatupu and CB Marcus Trufant. This team however struggled on the road at times in 2007 and now they must open 2008 across the country against a Bills team that always gives a good effort. Buffalo is nothing to write home about but they have an emerging offense led by super talented RB Marshawn Lynch and very smart QB Trent Edwards. All-Pro OT Jason Peters is still holding out as we write this which could hurt but the rest of the unit is solid enough to get the job done. The defense also looks to be good as DE Matt Schobel leads a good pass rushing unit with some emerging players in the secondary. They certainly stand a good chance of beating the Seahawks here as a major betting no-no is going with West Coast teams in Week 1 on the road in the East. That's the setup here and the value clearly rests on the Bills who won't be getting much love as many bettors will take the points with the seemingly better team. Value is where you make your money and the home team has it and then some. THE PICK: Buffalo Bills (-1)

New York Jets (-3) VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS:*****STRONG OPINION***

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16) VS. Kansas City Chiefs:******STRONG OPINION***

Detroit Lions (-3) VS. ATLANTA FALCONS: This is truly the worst game on the slate for Week 1 and is one that looks to be unwatchable. The Falcons will start the Matt Ryan era right off the bat against a Lions team whose defense can't stop a retirement home team. Ryan will surely lean on the running of new RB Michael Turner and the pass catching of emerging star Roddy White. The offense line is a joke however and it wouldn't be surprising to me so se Ryan challenge David Carr's record for most sacks taken. For Detroit, they continue to wallow in mediocrity but they continue to add pieces to the offense in rookie RB Kevin Smith who looked good in preseason and second-year wideout Calvin Johnson who will be a star very soon. The Lions being the Lions however, they then go out and sign a washed up Rudi Johnson late of the Bengals and continue to give the ball to mistake-prone QB Jon Kitna. So expect nothing but struggles for both teams all year. This game is one to stay away from for sure and I would rather watch women's tennis than sit through this. THE PICK: PASS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) VS. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Saints went into the off-season hell-bent on improving a defense that let them down way too often last year. The offense could be the best in the NFL however led by the steady hand of QB Drew Brees and an explosive receiving trio of RB Reggie Bush, WR Marques Colston, and TE Jeremy Shockey. If the defense can be even average, then New Orleans could be sitting on a huge season. For the Buc's, Jon Gruden has successfully changed the look of his team on the fly as new young additions to the defense have reestablished the tradition of a hard hitting stop unit. MLB Barrett Rudd and DE Gaines Adams are on the cusp of stardom and they form the perfect blend with still effective vets LB Derrick Brooks and CB Ronde Barber. The offense is once again led by QB Jeff Garcia after failing to acquire Brett Favre and the Earnest Graham looks to build off a breakout year in the running attack. This is a classic match up of great defense versus great offense and should be fun to watch. The Saints struggled against Tampa last season and it wouldn't be a shock to see Gruden's bunch steal one on the road. Either way this looks to be tight contest between two bitter division rivals. The extra half point makes Tampa Bay an attractive pick. THE PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Joe Flacco era begins in Baltimore as both Kyle Boller (injury) and Troy Smith (illness) couldn't answer the bell. Flacco played well in preseason at times and has shown the tools that made Baltimore salivate over his selection in the draft. Count on a heavy dose of RB Willis McGahee as the Ravens try to ease the transition for their franchise QB. On defense is where this team's strength lies as usual as Ray Lewis and company look to clamp down on opposing offenses as they have done so well over the years. They will look to do just that against a solid on paper Bengals offense. led by QB Carson Palmer. Palmer certainly has lots of weapons to throw to as Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh form possibly the best wideout combination in the NFL. As far as the running game is concerned, Chris Perry gets his chance after Rudi Johnson was cut and there is no telling whether he can hold up over the course of the season as injuries have been a problem. This is a very tough game to call as the Bengals struggled tremendously on the road last season but with Flacco starting for Baltimore, things could take awhile for them to get going. One trend that does stick out is that the Ravens qualify in a 33-19-1 ATS home underdog season opening angle so based on that aspect, we will go with the home team to stay competitive. THE PICK: Baltimore Ravens (+1.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) VS. TENNESSEE TITANS: These teams played a crazy series last season as each won on the other's home turf. Both teams also had successful 2007 seasons as each qualified for the postseason, with the Jags winning a game in Pittsburgh. Expectations are certainly high as we go into 2008 so this will be a barometer game for both squads. Jacksonville needs contributions from a so-so receiving unit in order to take that next step and the Titans needs QB Vince Young to learn to be a better passer for them to progress. This game figures to be a defensive contest as both units can lockdown any offense so the UNDER is worth a look. The Titans are also in the better betting position as a home underdog at home against a division foe which has gone 33-19-1 ATS. Just like the Cincy-Baltimore game, we will take the points and back that solid trend. THE PICK: Tennessee Titans (+3)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5) VS. Houston Texans:*******BEST BET******

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9) VS. Carolina Panthers: Another interesting game here as the Chargers have the look of a team destined to make the Super Bowl and the Panthers look to make a run of their own now that QB Jake Delhomme is back. The Chargers have stars all over the field at almost every position and 14-2 is not out of the question. The offensive is explosive with RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, and WR's Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson. The defense is just as good with All-Pro LB Shawne Merriman, DE Luis Castillo, DT Jamaal Williams, and CB Antonio Cromartie. Carolina on the other hand more of a blue collar look to them but don't take this team lightly. Delhomme is a Super Bowl runner up so he has proven he can win games and take his team deep into the postseason. Also rookie RB Jonathan Stewart is the perfect fit in coach John Fox's run heavy offense. The problem is that WR Steve Smith is suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to sucker-punching teammates Ken Lucas in practice. Without Smith the offense looks almost punch less, at least from a passing standpoint. It's almost too easy to say the Chargers will cover this one easily but based on the matchups, you can't argue against it. The only problem is that Carolina historically is a great bet as an underdog under Fox (31-16-2 ATS, with Delhomme at QB its 19-4-1 ATS). Those are some serious trends to look over when going with San Diego as the Chargers are great at home as evidenced by them having a 22-6-1 ATS when not favored by more than 11. So based on last trend and the fact Smith is out, leans us toward the home squad. THE PICK: San Diego Chargers (-9)

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS:******STRONG OPINION*****

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Certainly no one will be paying much attention to this one as both teams figure to struggle. The 49ers are in worse shape than the Cardinals however as its been determined that journeyman QB JT O'Sullivan gives them their best chance to win. Unreal. The Cardinals had their own QB issues as Kurt Warner beat out Matt Leinart in preseason. That's actually good news for Arizona as Warner had a great year last year and has much more ability to run the offense. WR's Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald should both have huge years with Warner at the helm and if RB Edgerrin James can give them one more good year, then this unit will be a major force. The defense needs work however but they do have some nice pieces in S Adrian Wilson and DE Bertrand Berry. They certainly wont have to work hard against a terrible 49ers offense that has only RB Frank Gore to scare people. Mike Martz comes over from Detroit to shore up the unit but there is no talent to work with. Hate going with Arizona on the road as they certainly have a long track record of letting down to the opponent but no way we back the 'Niners in any situation. THE PICK: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5) VS. Chicago Bears: Colts QB Peyton Manning looks like he will play after having an abscess removed during the preseason. He will once again lead an offense that is one of the NFL's best and is expertly run. Manning will have four great options to throw to in star WR Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark, emerging WR Anthony Gonzalez, and the returning from injury WR Marvin Harrison. Harrison's return is huge in that the offense will be much tougher to contain with him on the field. Throw in the great running of Joseph Addai and the Colts are one of the bets units out there on offense. The defense on the other hand struggled toward the end of last season due to injuries but star DE Dwight Freeney is back and S Bob Sanders looks like he is ready to go. When all hands are on deck, this is a very tough defense to score points on. The Bears certainly are no strangers when it comes to struggling to score points. Kyle Orton is in QB and rookie RB Matt Forte will run the ball. Not very scary. The defense is decent as there are big names up and down the roster but this is the same group that struggled badly toward the end of 2007. The Colts will be able to score no matter who they play and the Bears just don't have the ability to hang tight. If Manning doesn't play however then we pass. THE PICK Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5) VS. Minnesota Vikings: The Aaron Rogers era begins on Monday night at home against division rival Minnesota. The whole Brett Favre drama was certainly a major distraction for the Pack but they have said all along that Rogers is their guy and he looked all right in preseason. For Minnesota, QB Tarvaris Jackson is the key to the whole team's fortunes as every other unit looks outstanding. If Jackson can be even somewhat decent, then the Vikings could be Super Bowl-bound. The defensive line looks to be one of the best units ever assembled with incoming star DE Jared Allen joining stud DT's Kevin and Pat Williams to make life miserable for opposing passers. That will spell big trouble for Rogers who really couldn't have drawn a worse assignment from a pass rushing sense. RB Adrian Peterson is looking to build on a ridiculously awesome rookie year and so Green Bay must be ready on D to make sure this game doesn't get away from them early. This is a very tough game to call as it could go either way. There is way to much uncertainty here so it would be best to stay away as there are no trends pointing firmly toward either squad.. THE PICK: PASS

Denver Broncos (-3) VS. OAKLAND RAIDERS: There is nothing that Mike Shannahan loves more than to beat up the Oakland Raiders. Ever since he was unceremoniously fired by Al Davis as coach many eons ago, Shanahan has made it a point to stick it to his former boss whenever he can. The opportunity is there again as the Raiders are very young and raw on offense with QB JaMarcus Russell and RB Darren McFadden. The wideout corps is weak and there surely will be struggles for Russell early on. The defense needs a comeback from DE Derrick Burgess in order to be able to stay in games. The Broncos on the other hand have an emerging talent in QB Jay Cutler who has successfully dealt with the diabetes that plagued him last year. Cutler has a cannon of an arm and will be looking to air it out. The running game will also churn along as always with Selvin Young being the guy to pick up the workload. Oakland could certainly make strides this season but they have to go through some growing pains before they can take that step. Denver is the safe choice in this game. THE PICK: Denver Broncos (-3)

Co-founder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com/ in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.

Five weeks into the season, there are clears haves and have-nots. That was made especially evident last week, when six of the 14 games played saw the winning teams conquer by at least 19 points. Week 6 of the season should be a bit more competitive, and ultimately a bit more enjoyable for football fans. Something that never lacks for excitement, however, are the 1-Week Frenzies offered by Rotoplay. And once again, we're here to attempt to help you put together the best line-up possible with our player rankings.

Quarterbacks 1

1) Tom Brady (vs. Tennessee): There isn't better match-up this week than Brady vs. the Titans. Tennessee has been miserable against the pass this season; they rank 31st in the NFL in both pass defense and passing touchdowns allowed. In four of the five games Tennessee has played this season, the opposing quarterback has thrown for at least 300 yards, and in three separate games, opposing signal-callers have tossed at least three scores.

2) Aaron Rodgers (vs. Detroit): No team has allowed more passing touchdowns this season than Detroit, who has given up multiple scores through the air in every game this year. Rodgers has his first 300-yard game before the team's bye last week, and has thrown for two touchdowns in two consecutive games.

3) Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cleveland): Teams haven't put up fantastic passing numbers against the Browns because of how bad Cleveland is against the run. That said, they have still allowed 230 or more passing yards four times. Roethlisberger is playing very well, having completed at least 22 passes in every game this year.

4) Drew Brees (vs. NY Giants): Shockingly, Brees has gone two straight games having thrown for fewer than 200 yards without a touchdown. And it doesn't get any easier for him this week. It's hard not to recommend Brees, but the Giants have only allowed one passer to throw for more than 127 yards.

5) Matt Schaub (@ Cincinnati): Three times this season, Schaub has completed at least 25 passes for 300 or more yards and at least two scores. That doesn't seem likely to be the case this week. The Bengals are solid against the pass, as no opposing quarterback has thrown multiple touchdowns or for 300 yards in a game on them, and they haven't faced stiffs, either. Three of the five teams they've played are in the top-12 in the league in passing offense.

6) Philip Rivers (vs. Denver): The Broncos are currently fifth in the league against the pass, and are tied with Indianapolis for the fewest passing touchdowns given up. It should be noted, however, that in the six times Rivers has faced the Broncos since becoming San Diego's starting quarterback in 2006, he's thrown 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of those games.

Quarterbacks 2

1) Kurt Warner (@ Seattle): Warner has only six touchdowns and four interceptions, but he has completed at least 26 passes and thrown for 285 yards three times in four games. Seattle is ninth in the league against the pass, but Warner lit them up last year, throwing for 395 yards in one game against them and four touchdown passes in his other.

2) Donovan McNabb (@ Oakland): McNabb threw for over 260 yards and three scores in what was his first full game of the season last week. Now, he plays his second full contest (hopefully) against the woeful Raiders, who are average, at best, in pass defense.

3) Jay Cutler (@ Atlanta): After his poor start in Week 1, Cutler has thrown for at least two scores in each of his last three contests. Still, though Atlanta is 22nd in the league in pass defense, they've allowed just three passing scores this season, which is third in the league.

4) Carson Palmer (vs. Houston): Houston is 16th in the league against the pass, but those numbers are skewed a bit considering the Texans have faced three teams ranked outside the top-20 in passing offense. Palmer has tossed just two picks in his last three contests, to go with four touchdowns. Still, he's thrown one score or fewer in three of his five games this year.

5) David Garrard (vs. St. Louis): The Rams haven't allowed a 300-yard passer yet this season, so they have that going for them. Still, they're not adept at stopping the pass, so Garrard is in line for a solid week, but is not a great option considering the company he's keeping in this group.

6) Eli Manning (@ New Orleans): Manning faces off against the Saints this week, and three of the four quarterbacks to go up against New Orleans have thrown for 205 yards or fewer with no touchdowns. They're 11th in the NFL in pass defense, but only two teams have allowed fewer passing scores. The Saints also lead the NFL with 10 interceptions and have held opponents' signal-callers to a league-low 51.3 QB Rating.

Quarterbacks 3

1) Joe Flacco (@ Minnesota): Flacco has thrown for a touchdown in each of Baltimore's games this season, and his 22 completions last week were the fourth time in five games he's completed that many throws. The Vikings defense can be thrown on, which was obvious to anyone who saw the Rams move the ball on them. Minnesota is 17th against the pass and 20th in passing scores allowed.

2) Brett Favre (vs. Baltimore): Only Cleveland's pathetic passing attack has failed to post solid passing numbers against the Ravens this season. Favre has thrown at least one touchdown pass in every game this year, and three times has completed at least 23 passes.

3) Matt Ryan (vs. Chicago): The Bears have allowed just four passing touchdowns, which is sixth in the NFL, but they are 20th in the league in passing yards allowed. Ryan had a great day last week, with over 300 passing yards and two scores - the third time in four games he's thrown for multiple touchdowns.

4) Kyle Orton (@ San Diego): Orton has been merely solid all year; he's thrown a touchdown in every game, but threw for over 300 yards for the first time last week and has yet to throw more than two scores in a game and has completed over 20 passes just once. The Chargers are decent against the pass, but less so against the run, so expect Denver to concentrate on running the ball.

5) Jake Delhomme (@ Tampa Bay): The Buccaneers give up big plays left and right, and have allowed more passing scores than all but two teams, but Delhomme is far from trustworthy, and has not thrown for more than 1 touchdown in a game this year.

6) Derek Anderson (@ Pittsburgh): Hilariously - unless you're a Cleveland fan - Anderson completed just two passes last week. Two! Now he faces the Steelers and has pretty much nobody to throw to with Braylon Edwards gone. Do you really want him anywhere near your fantasy team?

Quarterbacks 4

1) Jason Campbell (vs. Kansas City): This is a very good match-up for Campbell, as the Chiefs are 29th in pass defense, and 28th in passing scores allowed. He has shown the ability to put up solid numbers against weak opponents, and should do so again this week.

2) Marc Bulger (@ Jacksonville): Bulger came in towards the end of the game last week and completed all seven of his passes, including one for a score. His match-up this week against the Jaguars' 30th-ranked pass defense is a good one, so if you're looking for a potential sleeper, Bulger may be it.

3) Matt Cassel (@ Washington): Cassel hasn't thrown an interception since Week 2, and he's thrown two touchdowns in each of his last three games. Yet it's important to note that he's thrown for fewer than 130 yards twice this season, and faces the Redskins' third-ranked pass defense this week.

4) Mark Sanchez (vs. Buffalo): Sanchez is an excellent game-manager, but as far as fantasy goes, there are simply too many statistical inadequacies in his game. He's completed fewer than 15 passes three times and has thrown more than one touchdown in a game just once.

5) Kerry Collins (@ New England): Collins was pulled from the Titans' game last week, and though he's starting again this week, he could go at any time, especially if the game turns into a blowout quickly. Use him at your own risk.

6) Trent Edwards (@ NY Jets): Edwards has one touchdown and five interceptions in his last three games, and faces a top-10 pass defense this week. Don't even bother with him.

Running Backs 1

1) Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. St. Louis): MJD did not have a good week against Seattle last Sunday, but that should be rectified this week against the Rams, who are 23rd in the NFL against the run and 26th in rushing scores allowed.

2) Matt Forte (@ Atlanta): Forte has an excellent match-up this week against a Falcons squad that is 24th in the NFL in run defense. He's caught five passes in two separate games this season, and with receptions being three points a pop, he's a good play.

3) DeAngelo Williams (@ Tampa Bay): The Bucs have only allowed three rushing scores because everyone scores against them throwing the ball. They're still 28th in the NFL against the run, and in Week 16 of last season, Williams ran for 186 yards and two scores against them.

4) Adrian Peterson (vs. Baltimore): All Day hasn't run for 100 yards since Week 1, and hasn't broken 70 yards in the last two weeks. Despite his obvious talents, the Ravens are fourth in the league against the run, and just last week let an opponent run for over 100 yards for the first time since 2006. It likely won't happen two weeks in a row.

5) Chris Johnson (@ New England): It's not Johnson's fault that Tennessee is as bad as they are, nor is it his fault that the Titans gave him just nine carries last week. No chance that will happen again, and he should be in store for a good day, even against the Patriots' solid run defense.

6) Steven Jackson (@ Jacksonville): Poor Jackson. He was so excited to finally score his first touchdown last week, he fumbled on a hand-off inside the five-yard line. If you can do without the scores, Jackson is a good play due to the touches he receives - at least 21 carries and multiple receptions in each of his last three games.

Running Backs 2

1) Rashard Mendenhall (vs. Cleveland): The only thing that might slow Mendenhall down this week is if Willie Parker, who is finally healthy, eats into his carries too much. Otherwise, this is a match-up to savor; the Browns are dead last in the NFL against the run, and have allowed more rushing scores than all but one team in the league.

2) Knowshon Moreno (@ San Diego): Moreno is clearly the man in the Denver backfield, with 21 rushes in two of his last three games. He's scored just once this year, but he's also caught six passes in those games, and has an excellent match-up against a San Diego team that is 27th in the NFL in run defense and 26th in rushing scores allowed.

3) Brian Westbrook (@ Oakland): Only two squads have allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Raiders, who are 31st in the league against the run. Westbrook is apparently fully healthy, but he's lost carries to second-round pick LeSean McCoy, and ended up toting the rock just six times last week.

4) Brandon Jacobs (@ New Orleans): Jacobs carried the ball 21 times for 67 yards last week as backfield mate Ahmad Bradshaw tore up the Raiders. Jacobs has a disappointing one touchdown this season, and has caught just four passes, severely hurting his value in this format.

5) Michael Turner (vs. Chicago): The problem with Turner is that he simply doesn't catch the ball - he has just one catch this season. And in this scoring format, that means he'd have to outrush another player in this group by 30 yards for each of their catches.

6) Steve Slaton (@ Cincinnati): Slaton continues to be one of the bigger disappointments in fantasy football this season. He's run for fewer than 40 yards in three of his five games this year, including last week, and now faces a Cincinnati defense that is 12th in the league in run defense and which has allowed just three rushing scores.

Running Backs 3

1) Cedric Benson (vs. Houston): Benson accomplished something last week nobody had done in two full seasons - run for 100 or more yards against the Ravens. This week, he faces Houston, which is 26th in run defense, and dead last in rushing scores allowed.

2) Kevin Smith (@ Green Bay): Green Bay has only allowed two scores on the ground, which is tied for fourth in the league, but they've also had two runners gain at least 100 yards against them in the four games they've played this year. Smith has added value due to the fact he's caught multiple passes in each game this year.

3) Pierre Thomas (vs. NY Giants): Thomas has performed well of late, running for at least 85 yards and a touchdown in two consecutive games. The Giants are excellent against the pass, but can be run on. They're 15th in the NFL in run defense, and only seven teams have allowed more rushing scores than they have.

4) Ryan Grant (vs. Detroit): Though Grant has carried the ball 16 or fewer times in three of his four games this season, his match-up here is a good one. Detroit has allowed a running back to gain at least 75 yards in four of the five games they've played on the year.

5) Clinton Portis (vs. Kansas City): Despite his nice match-up against the Chiefs, Portis is dealing with an ankle malady, and, like Jones, doesn't get enough touches compared to the rest of the players in this group.

6) Thomas Jones (vs. Buffalo): Yes, Jones scored twice last week, but he hasn't carried the ball more than 14 times since Week 1, and he's a non-factor in the passing game, killing his value in this format.

Running Backs 4

1) LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. Denver): The Broncos are sixth in the league in run defense, allowing just 81.0 yards per game (only one time has a runner even topped 70 yards against them), and have let opposing ball carriers cross the goal-line just twice. LT has been struggling to start the year, but he'll have a huge game sooner or later, and in this group of runners, is a good option.

2) Ray Rice (@ Minnesota): Rice's seven receptions last week marked the third game this season in which he's had at least five catches out of the backfield. He usually doesn't see more than 15 carries in a game, but three points per reception means his value is very high.

3) Cadillac Williams (vs. Carolina): Caddy ran the ball 10 times for, and this is not a typo, eight yards last week. It was the third time in five games he's run for fewer than 10 yards. Yes, he can catch the ball out of the backfield, but his history of all or nothing this year makes him a gamble, even against a pillow-soft Panthers run defense.

4) Fred Jackson (@ NY Jets): Marshawn Lynch is back, and he's the No. 1 runner in the Bills' backfield, severely hurting Jackson's fantasy value. Even if Lynch was not around, this is a poor match-up for Jackson.

5) Tim Hightower (@ Seattle): Hightower ran the ball just six times last week, which was the third time in four games he's had fewer than 10 carries in a game. With carries being worth one point in this scoring system, there are better options.

6) Jerome Harrison (@ Pittsburgh): Jamal Lewis returned last week, putting Harrison back into the No. 2 spot in the Cleveland backfield, though Lewis was limited in practice some this week. Still, there's no reason to use Harrison against the Steelers.

Wide Receivers 1

1) Randy Moss (vs. Tennessee): Moss has scored just one touchdown on the year, but this week, against a Titans pass defense that is softer than a 300-pound man's beer belly, he should go off. The Titans have allowed four different 100-yard receivers this season, and have allowed at least one wideout to gain at least 90 yards in every game.

2) Larry Fitzgerald (@ Seattle): Two more touchdowns for Fitzgerald last week gave him four in four games this season. Yet he also had fewer than 80 receiving yards once again, and hasn't broken that mark so far this year. Nonetheless, how do you not like a guy who had games of 151 and 130 receiving yards against the Seahawks last season?

3) Andre Johnson (@ Cincinnati): Though the Bengals have been fairly successful in stopping the pass overall, they have allowed opposing wideouts to come up big against them. Last week was the first time all season they didn't allow a receiver to gain at least 85 yards against them. That's about the least you should expect from Johnson.

4) Steve Smith (NYG) (@ New Orleans): Smith caught a season-low three passes last week, but still picked up 70 yards. It's hard to stay away from Smith, especially in this format due to the fact that receptions are worth so much, but the match-up isn't great, and only one wide receiver has caught more than six passes in a game against the Saints.

5) Anquan Boldin (@ Seattle): Boldin has been solid all season, but has only found the end zone one time - those looks are going to teammate Larry Fitzgerald. He's always going to put up some type of decent numbers, but there are better options in this group.

6) Marques Colston (vs. NY Giants): Only twice in five games has a wideout been the leading receiver in a game against the Giants, and one of the receivers had fewer than 30 yards to lead the team. This match-up is too difficult when you consider the other players in this group.

Wide Receivers 2

1) Steve Smith (CAR) (@ Tampa Bay): Only Jake Delhomme has held Smith back, but history says Smith will overcome to have a very good game this week. In two games against the Buccaneers last season, Smith had at least 110 receiving yards in each.

2) Brandon Marshall (@ San Diego): Marshall has four touchdown catches over his last three games, and though he has yet to gain 100 receiving yards in a contest this year, that's coming soon. In Week 2 of last season, Marshall had 18 catches for 166 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers.

3) Roddy White (vs. Chicago): White announced his presence with aplomb last week after being non-existent for the beginning of the season. He had 210 receiving yards and two touchdowns last week, and though he won't repeat that this week, he does have a decent match-up against the Bears.

4) Vincent Jackson (vs. Denver): Jackson hasn't caught more than six passes in any game, and he's also had a bye week, so the fact that he's sixth in the NFL in receiving yards says a lot. And though Denver is excellent against the pass, three different receivers have gained at least 85 yards on them in a game this year.

5) Chad Ochocinco (vs. Houston): The Ocho had a season-high seven grabs and 94 receiving yards last week, and has a decent match-up this week against the Texans. He's clearly Carson Palmer's No. 1 target, so there's every reason to expect him to have a solid game.

6) Calvin Johnson (@ Green Bay): Johnson is struggling with a knee injury, causing him to miss practice time. He'll likely be a game-time decision, so it's difficult to recommend him knowing that. If you simply must use him, check on Sunday to see if he's playing.

Wide Receivers 3

1) T.J. Houshmandzadeh (vs. Arizona): The Arizona Cardinals have been destroyed through the air, having allowed a wideout to gain at least 100 yards in three of their four games this season, and at least 70 yards in every game. Now that Matt Hasselbeck has returned, Houshmandzadeh will be a force.

2) Wes Welker (vs. Tennessee): Welker missed two games earlier in the season, then labored in his first contest upon his return, but he got back to doing his think last week in the Patriots' loss to Denver. He caught eight passes for 86 yards and one touchdown in the game, and with one of the league's worst pass defenses coming up, he's a great option.

3) Greg Jennings (vs. Detroit): With just five receptions over his last three games, Jennings has not been as involved in the Packers' offense as fantasy enthusiasts have hoped. This very well could be the game he goes off, however, as he has a good match-up with a Detroit team he burned for over 100 yards in both of his games against them last year.

4) Santana Moss (vs. Kansas City): Moss has had two games where he's made big plays, but the only problem here is, he doesn't catch the ball an awful lot. And though he could be in store for another solid contest considering the weak pass defense of the Chiefs, his lack of catches is something that needs to be considered.

5) Santonio Holmes (vs. Cleveland): Holmes has been very average since Week 1, and the Browns have actually held individual receivers down this season. Only one wideout has gotten more than 86 yards in a game against them.

6) DeSean Jackson (@ Oakland): One catch for one yard. That was the extent of Jackson's day last week. It was the second time in four games he had fewer than 10 receiving yards, and that inconsistency is a bit of a worry.

Wide Receivers 4

1) Hines Ward (vs. Cleveland): Ward has caught at least six passes and gained at least 80 yards in four of the Steelers' five games this year, though that's come with only one touchdown. He's a decent play, but Pittsburgh will likely be more focused on running the ball, which could hold Ward down somewhat.

2) Mike Sims-Walker (vs. St. Louis): Sims-Walker didn't play last week because he was suspended for a violation of team rules. The Jaguars subsequently got shut out, and he's back on the field with a very good match-up against a Rams team that is 25th in the league against the pass.

3) Derrick Mason (@ Minnesota): Mason simply will not be shut out like he was last week, and he's a solid option against a Vikings pass defense that can be exploited. Mason is very capable of doing the exploiting this week.

4) Bernard Berrian (vs. Baltimore): The Ravens remain surprisingly below-average against the pass, coming in 26th in the league in that category. Berrian has yet to gain more than 75 receiving yards, but all he needs is one of his trademark big plays to make that happen.

5) Dwayne Bowe (@ Washington): Bowe's touchdown catch last week was his third in four games, something he's accomplished despite not catching more than five passes in any contest. Washington is third in the NFL in pass defense, so this won't be an easy game for him, but he's clearly a threat to score each week.

6) Jerricho Cotchery (vs. Buffalo): Cotchery is dealing with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of practice. He's got a decent match-up if he plays, but there are other, healthier options in this group.

Wide Receivers 5

1) Donald Driver (vs. Detroit): With at least four catches in every game this season, Driver has done a lot to prove that, even at age 34, there's a lot of tread left in his tires. He has a solid match-up this week against Detroit, a team he scored a touchdown against both times Green Bay played them last season.

2) Nate Burleson (vs. Arizona): Burleson has a great match-up against the Cardinals, but he's battling a bit of a back injury, something that has come at the least opportune time. He has only been limited in practice, so he should be able to play, but check before inserting him in your lineup.

3) Kevin Walter (@ Cincinnati): The Bengals have allowed one receiver to be productive against them, but have yet to allow two receivers in the same game do so. Only once, against the Steelers, have they allowed two wideouts to each gain at least 40 yards against them.

4) Eddie Royal (@ San Diego): Royal finally got involved last week after a hugely disappointing start. He caught 10 passes for 90 yards in Denver's win over the Patriots. But with such poor numbers the rest of the season, can we really trust him?

5) Mario Manningham (@ New Orleans): Manningham is a big play waiting to happen, but he doesn't always get a lot of work. For example, over the last two weeks, the Michigan product has caught just three passes, and he's accumulated more than four receptions in one game this season, and has crossed the 60 receiving-yard barrier just once.

6) Terrell Owens (@ NY Jets): There's just no reason to think TO will get it going this week, especially against a team in the Jets that has shut down their opposition's top wideout with regularity.

Tight Ends 1

1) Brent Celek (@ Oakland): Celek has been a big part of the Philly offense, with at least four catches in three of the team's four contests this season. The Raiders have twice allowed more than 45 receiving yards to a tight end in five games this year.

2) Antonio Gates (vs. Denver): Gates is the leading pass-catcher on the Chargers' squad with 24, and he hasn't caught fewer than five passes in any one game this season. The Broncos have generally been excellent against tight ends this season, having held the likes of Jason Witten to just four catches for 31 yards, but Gates is too big a piece of San Diego's offense to be held down.

3) Tony Gonzalez (vs. Chicago): Only once have the Bears really been burned by players at the tight end position, and that was their last game against the Lions. Other than that, no tight end has amassed even 30 receiving yards against them. Still, Gonzalez isn't your typical tight end, is he?

4) Owen Daniels (@ Cincinnati): Daniels could be in line for a solid day on Sunday. He caught eight passes last week, and has caught at least five in three of the Texans' games this season. Cincinnati has allowed at least one tight end to catch five or more passes in three straight games.

5) Chris Cooley (vs. Kansas City): Cooley was completely shut out in the Redskins' last game, but that shouldn't be the case this week. He and the Skins go up against the Chiefs, who have been burned by tight ends twice for over 70 yards and a touchdown, and four times for at least 40 yards.

6) Heath Miller (vs. Cleveland): Miller has caught at least five passes in four of the Steelers' five games this year, and has scored three times in his last two games. The Browns have been good against tight ends, however, with none catching more than four passes or gaining more than 41 yards against them.

Tight Ends 2

1) John Carlson (vs. Arizona): Arizona stinks in pass defense, and that includes trying to cover tight ends. In three of their four games this season, tight ends have amassed at least 60 receiving yards, and twice they've allowed tight ends to catch touchdowns.

2) Kellen Winslow (vs. Carolina): Even with Tampa's below-average passing attack, Winslow holds value as a safety valve for quarterback Josh Johnson. The Panthers have allowed tight ends to beat them often this year, with an opposing player from that position leading their team in receiving yards in three of Carolina's four games.

3) Greg Olsen (@ Atlanta): The Falcons have been decent against tight ends this season, but over their last two games have seen players at that position catch nine passes for 155 yards and one touchdown. Olsen has scored in two straight games, but he had just one catch in the Bears' last contest.

4) Jeremy Shockey (vs. NY Giants): Shockey has caught at least four passes in each of the Saints' first four games, but he's not getting many yards with those receptions. He has yet to get at least 50 receiving yards and hasn't scored since Week 1.

5) Dustin Keller (vs. Buffalo): Keller was not on the receiving end of a single pass from Mark Sanchez last week in the Jets' loss to the Dolphins. He has also caught three or fewer passes in each of his last four games with a high total of 31 yards.

6) Jermichael Finley (vs. Detroit): Finley has a solid match-up and is coming off a career-best of 128 yards while scoring a touchdown, but his inconsistency makes it tough to trust him. He had just one catch for six yards in Week 1, and was completely shut out in Week 3.

The San Diego Chargers capped off the 2009 regular season with 11 straight wins on their way to a fourth straight AFC West division title. However, they couldn't keep it going in the playoffs. They were upset by the New York Jets in the divisional round.

The Chargers still appear to be the most talented team in the West as we near the 2010 season, but just winning another division title will be a disappointment if this team doesn't make a trip to the Super Bowl.

Offense: Despite a pathetic running game, which ranked next to last in the league, the Chargers were one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL last season. With a 28.4 points per game scoring average, the Chargers boasted the fourth-best scoring offense in the league.

Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers led the way in 2009, and his right arm will continue to be the focal point of the offense now that LaDainian Tomlinson is a New York Jet. Rivers threw for 4,254 yards and 28 scores with just nine interceptions, while finishing third in the NFL with a 104.4 quarterback rating.

Rivers benefits from having a pair of elite targets in the receiving corps. Antonio Gates is one of the premier pass catching tight ends in the NFL and Jackson is quickly emerging as a top notch wideout. This dynamic duo combined for 147 catches, 2,324 yards and 17 touchdowns last season.

The Chargers were the second-worst rushing team in the NFL in 2009, only gaining 88.9 yards per game. While it was tough to part ways with one of the greatest backs in NFL history, San Diego's running game can't get any worse. If anything it should get better with the fresh legs of first round draft pick Ryan Matthews and a healthier offensive line.

Defense: The San Diego defense was solid in 2009, only allowing 20.0 points per game (11th in the NFL), but the Chargers aren't satisfied. Their pass defense wasn't consistent. In fact, they ranked No. 20 in the NFL against the pass, giving up 209.2 yards per game. The Chargers can easily decrease that number if outside linebacker Shawne Merriman returns to form.

Merriman didn't look like himself in his first season back from a serious knee injury. He only tallied four sacks after averaging 13.2 per year through his first three seasons.

The other Shaun, Shaun Phillips, continued his consistently good play with a seven sack campaign. He has now recorded at least seven sacks each of the last five years. The Bolts are also looking for more production from Larry English in his second season.

Kevin Burnett and Stephen Cooper will join the aforementioned platoon to form a solid linebacker unit.

Big Luis Castillo leads the charge up front with fellow vets Jacques Cesaire, Ryon Bingham, Travis Johnson and Antonio Garay chipping in as well.

San Diego struggled to defend the pass last season, allowing 209.2 yards per game through the air (20th in the NFL). More production from Merriman or English will go a long way toward improving this area.

The Chargers shipped Antonio Cromartie to the Jets, but they like what they have in 2008 first round pick Antoine Cason. He joins shutdown corner Quentin Jammer to form a formidable cornerback duo.

Prediction: 1st AFC West - Look for the Bolts to win a fifth straight division title behind the strong right arm of Rivers. NFL lines makes have listed the Chargers as a big favorite to win the AFC West.

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