My Antonio Gates Blog

Well Week 1 of the NFL season is almost upon us and like the college football opener last weekend, this event is like Christmas in September for our stable of professional handicappers. After the incredible opening performance we had with our college football week 1 picks, we now turn our attention to the opening week of the NFL season. There are 15 games at our disposal. 15 games to analyze and handicap so that we can pass along the correct information to our many subscribers who have trusted out judgment for over 10 years. Now for us professional cappers, week 1 of both college and the NFL season are the hardest weeks we have to deal with. There are many uncertainties at work here and trying to figure out who is decent and who is terrible is not so easy when no games have been played. The oddsmakers also have a difficult time releasing adequate lines and we have seen over the years that Vegas either loses a ton of money in week 1 due to poor lines, or wins a ton of money, due to great lines.

Now as far as the NFL is concerned, it is only mildly easier to handicap week 1 games as compared to college football. For one, there are four NFL preseason game that serve as a decent barometer to tell how good a team can be. Also, you have more steadiness in NFL rosters due to the fact you don't constantly have kids graduating and jobs constantly being taken over. So with that as a backdrop, we examined Week 1's lines and started doing hardcore analyzing once the fourth preseason games were in the books. Our picks are all pretty much finished and they are being prepared to be sent out shortly but I must say that there are some very interesting lines out there.

For example you have the worst team in the NFL by far last season, the Oakland Raiders being favored at home against the Detroit Lions. Also, you have another poor team, the Houston Texans being favored by 3 points at home against a veteran Kansas City Chiefs team. Now surely the presence of QB Matt Schaub for the Texans is a major reason for the role as the favorite here but this is a big example of how an off-season transaction can have a major impact on a betting line for the first week of the season. We haven't seen any games yet and so no one really knows if this status is warranted for the Texans of if they are still a poor club. Hence the challenge everyone in this line of work has. However, we have used our dozens of winning formula, game trends, and stats to weed out who we like and we have used these winning formulas to accumulate a nearly 60 percent winning mark in 10 years of business. Our college football picks went 26-12 ATS in Week 1 and a good deal of the picks were there for everyone to see on our site. As far as Week 1 of the NFL season, we feel like we made very solid choices and here are a few freebies for you to enjoy.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5) VS. Baltimore Ravens: In a division slugfest, the Cincinnati Bengals look to put a turbulent off-season behind them as they take on the Baltimore Ravens at home. Just like St. Louis-Carolina, this figures to be a battle of strong offense vs. strong defense. For Cincy, QB Carson Palmer is already one of the top three passers in the league and there is no reason to believe that he won't pass for 4,000 yards and possibly as many as 35 TD's. Having a pair of Pro Bowl receivers in Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh around will further solidify his place among the NFL's elite. It will be interesting to see how Cincy comes out offensively in this one as Baltimore's defense is strong in all aspects. RB Rudi Johnson will find the running room very tight as DT Haloti Ngata's 350 pound frame will clog the middle and IF he can make it through, MLB Ray Lewis will be waiting to smash him in the mouth. The Bengals will most likely keep their attack in the air as Houshmandzadeh will have the easier assignment with Samari Rolle covering as opposed to Chad Johnson having to deal with Chris McAllister.

As far as the Ravens are concerned, expect to see a heavy dose of new RB Willis McGahee as the Bengal run defense struggled at times last year. Steve McNair is back for another go round and he is still crafty enough to get the ball downfield to wideouts Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. Offense however is not this team's strong suit and scoring in the 20's is about the best that this unit can do. So on the surface, expecting the Ravens to outscore Baltimore will take a huge defensive effort which we don't anticipate to the degree that they can win this game outright. The Bengals should come out flying in front of the home crowd and will be extra pumped up going against a key division rival. Although the Raven D can do enough to keep them in the game, the Bengals have way too much firepower to be held in check for long. The Bengals have also covered four of their last five against the Ravens and the favorite in the last seven games in the series is now 6-1 ATS. THE PICK: Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6) Chicago Bears: Best match up this upcoming Sunday as this is a potential Super Bowl preview between two very good teams. The Bears rode a record setting defense all the way to the Super Bowl last season and have the same unit pretty much completely intact going into 2007. The Chargers on the other hand are looking to do big things and erase the sting of losing in their first playoff game, which ultimately cost coach Marty Schoettenheimer his job. Marty has now been replaced by Redskins and Raiders retread Norv Turner and Turner should have an immediate impact on the San Diego offense. Led by All-World RB LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers have a great nucleus in QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates. The offensive line is arguably the best in the league and the receiving corp. is getting better. Expect Norv to open up the offense and to completely due away with the conservative game-planning that held this team back in 2006. Of course it would impossibly to say LT could top his ridiculous performance last season but he is still in his prime and certainly has a great chance of having another monster season.

Look for the Chargers to open up their attack by running Tomlinson up the middle and having Rivers throw him passes in the flat which he can turn up field into big gains. The Chicago defense is much too quick to run on the outside and so this plan of attack will be the best way for San Diego to get production out of Tomlinson. As far as Rivers is concerned, look for his focus to be mainly on his star TE as the ferocious Chicago pass rush will be out for blood. Rivers won't have all day to throw so Gates will be instructed to run his 15 yard slants that he is so famous for. Of course Bears MLB Brian Urlacher has the athleticism to stay with Gates and so this battle could go either way. The Chargers' receiving corp. is led by the emerging Vincent Jackson and supported by Eric Parker. San Diego is at a major disadvantage against the Chicago CB duo of Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher and so don't expect much of a downfield passing attack.

The Chicago offense has potential themselves but the big question centers of course on inconsistent QB Rex Grossman. There are times that Grossman looks like the next Joe Namath and others when he looks like the next Ryan Leaf. His inability to put back-to-back solid outings together is maddening but it's hoped that off-season tutoring will allow Rex to fulfill his potential and become a solid every-week performer. A big issue for Grossman in this game is the great pass rush that the Chargers will bring with OLB Shawne Merriman and DE Luis Castillo. San Diego's defensive line and LB's are so strong that the Bears will have a very difficult time running the football with RB Cedric Benson. Benson has the starting job all to himself but this is a very tough opponent to face in Week 1. Don't expect much out of the Chicago running game and so the focus will be on Grossman getting the ball out quickly to his TE's Desmond Clark and rookie Greg Olsen. WR Mushin Muhammud will also be targeted often as the veteran is still a great route runner who can help move the chains. All in all, it will be very difficult for the Bears to get much going offensively unless the offensive line can hold off the rush.

We believe this game will be a very low scoring affair that ultimately the Chargers will win due to their superior offense. Will they do enough to overcome the six-point spread? We think not as we expect a 21-17 win. Also looking at the game trends, the Bears have covered four straight games vs. the Chargers and have gone an incredible 17-2-1 ATS record against the AFC West in their last 20 meetings. Finally, the Bears are 7-3 ATS as an underdog in season openers the last 27 years. THE PICK: Chicago Bears (+6)

Good Luck!

Cofounder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com/ in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.